In recent weeks, the press has compiled the good numbers shown by Mexican tourism, given the sharp collapse it experienced during the pandemic. The better behavior of the virus in the lands of North and Latin America, as well as the greater stability shown by these countries at a time when Europe is at war, while Asia is again confined, has led to the return of tourists to a country that, as the statistics show, had a great dependence on this sector.
Behind Spain, Mexico is one of those economies that give more weight in GDP to the tourism sector. On average, in recent years, the weight of the tourism sector in the Mexican GDP has been greater than 8%, so we are talking about a great economic engine for the Aztec country. In addition, this importance is also noted when we extrapolate the analysis to other contexts such as employment, where the tourism sector once again demonstrates its importance and ability to boost the Mexican economy.
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When the economic crisis hit, the sector most affected by this pandemic crisis was undoubtedly the tourism sector. In the face of the need to contain the spread of the virus, the response of governments was to stop social contact, and thus trips, transportation and everything that required social contact was stopped. To give us an idea, this was the shocker, that the sector, which occupied 8.5% of Mexico’s GDP in 2019, now accounts for 6.7% of said GDP. In other words, the tourism sector has been shut down because it hasn’t been shut down before.
However. Once this social contact was allowed, tourists began to express their reservations, while businesses associated with this sector began to operate. The good data we are seeing in various stock markets about hotel chains, airlines and other companies closely related to the tourism sector is just a sample of the good outlook that is being kept about the sector’s recovery. Tourism is starting to walk, and the data tells us it intends to regain its rhythm, perhaps even surpassing it very soon.
And all of this, for an economy where tourism is so important, is something to celebrate. Well, with the forecasts that we talked about, as we see in the results of the tourism sub-account that will be published in December 2022, this share of tourism GDP in the national GDP is expected to improve to 7.1%, to be able to close 2022 above 8.3%, That is only three-tenths less than the 2019 number.
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In dollars, and based on the expectations shown by the tourism indicators that were consulted, the country’s Minister of Tourism, Miguel Toroco Marquez, indicated that tourism consumption will exceed 146 thousand million dollars at the end of this year. If these figures are met, we will be talking about consumption that could rise by more than 12% compared to the consumption recorded in 2021, taking into account the sum of domestic and international spending. As we can see, we are talking about a quite clear recovery and this, in light of the data, provides optimism for an economy that, along with international trade, is seeing its economic drivers begin to revitalize.
The past few months have not been easy for the Mexican economy. The situation that occurred with the epidemic, as well as with inflation, led to the stagnation of Mexican GDP. In addition, anti-inflation policies, while trying to curb it, make it more difficult to break out of the stumbling block. A situation that already looked like stagflation in the heads of analysts, with consequences for the Aztec country; Which, in addition, appeared as the economy that underpinned the least recovery and thus was expected to recover later.
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However, among many shades, this revitalization of the tourism sector is once again encouraging the economy, which needs this news to be confident in the recovery. Besides international trade, as well as other opportunities that are presented in this context, the restoration of the tourism sector is great news for Mexico. In addition, these projections that are given, taking into account the savings obtained by many tourists after being unable to travel due to restrictions derived from Covid, reflect an increase in spending for each tourist who is more encouraged, and an increase in spending is expected to exceed 20%.
In short, and as I said a few weeks ago, there are reasons to be confident. However, the country is going through a difficult situation that must be addressed as soon as possible. Strengthening and enhancing these economic growth drivers, which return to normal operation once the situation returns to normal, is a good bet to resume the currently stalled recovery.
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